The question is the product
A prediction market begins with a question and an observable outcome. Ambiguous wording can make a market hard to interpret even when its interface is excellent. Start by reading what counts as resolution and who decides.
A price needs context
A traded price is an observation from a specific market. Liquidity, participation, fees, incentives, and resolution risk all shape it. Treating that observation as an objective probability hides these constraints.
A research checklist
Compare the resolution rules, available information, and trading depth. Ask which voices may be absent and what would cause a participant to change their view. Better market design can be as interesting as the headline forecast.